SNOWBALLHARE PLAYBOOK
SnowballHare Stanley Druckenmiller-Inspired Macro Conviction Score
A research-prioritization model for testing whether thesis, market evidence, expression, and risk align.
Scoring inputs
| Input | Weight | What to test |
|---|---|---|
| Macro regime | 15% | Growth, inflation, policy, fiscal impulse, and expectations |
| Liquidity | 15% | Real yields, curve, spreads, lending, dollar, and funding |
| Leadership confirmation | 15% | Trend, breadth, relative strength, and positioning |
| Earnings confirmation | 15% | Revenue, margin, orders, and estimate revisions |
| Cross-asset confirmation | 10% | Rates, FX, commodities, credit, equities, and volatility |
| Asymmetry | 15% | Bull, Base, Bear outcomes and embedded expectations |
| Risk limit | 10% | Invalidation, liquidity, gap, correlation, and leverage |
| Update speed | 5% | Decision log, new evidence, and disciplined reversal |
Score bands
- 85–100 — Conviction candidate: thesis, confirmation, expression, and loss control align.
- 70–84 — Probe only: use a small position while one major variable develops.
- 50–69 — Watchlist: macro idea is plausible but timing or expression is weak.
- 0–49 — Reject: confirmation, asymmetry, or risk control is insufficient.
Action matrix
| Macro + earnings + price align | Research a scalable position from the invalidation loss. |
|---|---|
| Macro aligns, price diverges | Wait or use a small probe; timing may be wrong. |
| Price leads, earnings lag | Track revisions and distinguish anticipation from pure momentum. |
| Thesis works, expression lags | Compare instruments and aggregate hidden theme exposure. |
Worked example
Disinflation and lower real yields support an AI infrastructure thesis. Leadership and earnings revisions confirm demand, but credit spreads widen and the selected stock requires flawless capital spending. The model reduces cross-asset and asymmetry scores, favoring a smaller probe, a cleaner supplier, or no trade.
Hard invalidation rules
- The growth-inflation regime changes materially.
- Liquidity and financial conditions contradict the thesis.
- Cross-asset or earnings confirmation breaks.
- The chosen security stops being the cleanest expression.
- Bear-case loss exceeds the portfolio risk budget.
- Liquidity, correlation, or leverage makes planned exit unrealistic.