SNOWBALLHARE PLAYBOOK
SnowballHare Peter Lynch-Inspired Growth Story Score
This model converts a visible company story into testable operating, financial, and valuation evidence.
Scoring inputs
| Input | Weight | Test |
|---|---|---|
| Category fit | 20% | Slow Grower, Stalwart, Fast Grower, Cyclical, Turnaround, or Asset Play |
| Growth evidence | 20% | Units, usage, same-store sales, volume, price, retention, or orders |
| Unit economics | 20% | Margins, inventory, contribution economics, CAC, and cash conversion |
| Runway | 15% | Penetration, units, geography, products, saturation, and competition |
| Valuation versus growth | 15% | Normalized PEG logic and expectations embedded in price |
| Balance-sheet resilience | 10% | Cash, debt, maturities, leases, dilution, and slowdown survival |
Score bands
- 80–100 — Growth story confirmed: operating evidence and valuation support further research.
- 65–79 — Needs one more report: one major variable requires confirmation.
- 45–64 — Popular but risky: product visibility exceeds investment evidence.
- 0–44 — Story stock: narrative is doing more work than the numbers.
Action matrix
| Visible product + rising margins | Compare peers and test whether it is the best category expression. |
|---|---|
| Visible product + falling margins | Do not chase; growth may be increasingly expensive. |
| Fast growth + saturation | Reduce runway score and normalize the terminal growth rate. |
| Cyclical + peak earnings | Use mid-cycle earnings before calculating valuation or PEG. |
Worked example
A retailer has 18% revenue growth, 14% unit growth, 4% comparable sales, 28% inventory growth, falling operating margin, and a 36× forward P/E against 15% expected EPS growth. The familiar product does not pass: PEG is 2.4, inventory outruns sales, and unit expansion is not yet producing stronger economics.
Hard invalidation rules
- The company no longer fits the assigned category.
- Growth evidence diverges from the company story.
- Inventory, churn, or customer acquisition costs deteriorate materially.
- Margin and cash conversion weaken as scale increases.
- Debt or dilution removes the time required for the story to work.
- Price embeds a growth rate or runway unsupported by evidence.