NASDAQ · Technology
MSFT stock analysis: filings, institutional holders, and operating trends
Microsoft sells cloud infrastructure, productivity software, Windows, enterprise applications, gaming products, and AI-enabled services through Azure, Microsoft 365, Dynamics, GitHub, and LinkedIn. This page connects filing evidence with ownership, insider activity, forecasts, ETFs, and peer context so each dataset can be checked against the others.
Deterministic, source-linked commentary
The current research read on MSFT
For MSFT, the filing evidence matters before the market narrative. 10-Q covers CY2026Q1. quarterly revenue was $82.9B; year-over-year growth was 18.3%; operating margin was 46.3%; trailing free cash flow was $67.6B. Read together, these figures test whether scale is translating into profit and cash. Verify periods and company footnotes in the original SEC EDGAR filing.
The current 13F sample puts MSFT in an ownership context. 7 tracked managers reported $4.1B of aggregate value. Third Point recorded the largest measured share-count move at -100.0%. 13F positions arrive after quarter end and exclude many shorts, cash balances, and derivatives; inspect the full holder record before drawing a conclusion.
Scenario work adds a forward-looking layer to the reported results. The forecast scenarios were updated 2026-05-14. Revenue growth, margins, cash generation, and risk assumptions must be checked against each new filing. Compare them with the latest earnings analysis.
No single dataset settles the MSFT research case. Use institutional ownership, insider filings, earnings analysis, forecast scenarios alongside the filing. Company facts can update before 13F positions, so align every source date and report period before treating a difference as a change in fundamentals.
Business model
Company snapshot
Microsoft sells cloud infrastructure, productivity software, Windows, enterprise applications, gaming products, and AI-enabled services through Azure, Microsoft 365, Dynamics, GitHub, and LinkedIn. The latest standardized snapshot records $311.9B of trailing revenue, $123.81B of net income, and $67.65B of free cash flow. These figures describe the reported company, while valuation and price require a separate market-data timestamp.
Operating lines
A named product, service, or operating exposure identified in the company description.
A named product, service, or operating exposure identified in the company description.
A named product, service, or operating exposure identified in the company description.
A named product, service, or operating exposure identified in the company description.
A named product, service, or operating exposure identified in the company description.
A named product, service, or operating exposure identified in the company description.
Geographic revenue mix
The current standardized filing dataset does not extract a comparable geographic revenue table for every issuer. Review the latest 10-K segment note for domestic and international mix, concentration, foreign-exchange sensitivity, and country-specific regulation.
10-Q · 2026-04-29
What the latest filing shows
Revenue for the latest standardized quarter was $82.89B, while diluted EPS was 4.27. Revenue changed 18.3% from the comparable period. Gross margin was 67.6% and operating margin was 46.3%. Margin direction matters because it shows whether growth is translating into operating leverage or requiring more cost to support.
Open original SEC filing13F-HR
13F institutional holdings
6 tracked institutional managers currently report MSFT, representing $4.05B of aggregate value. The top five account for 99.9% of tracked value. This concentration is calculated only within SnowballHare's manager universe, not across every institutional owner.
Top institutional holders
| Holder | Shares | Value | Portfolio weight | QoQ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pershing Square | 5,654,078 | $2.09B | 15.26% | New |
| Tiger Global Management | 2,500,000 | $925.43M | 4.05% | -54.4% |
| Coatue Management | 2,480,017 | $918.03M | 3.16% | -52.0% |
| Soros Fund Management | 211,966 | $78.46M | 0.86% | -19.4% |
| Appaloosa Management | 90,000 | $33.32M | 0.56% | -82.0% |
| ARK Invest | 6,399 | $2.37M | 0.02% | -6.5% |
| Third Point | 0 | $0 | 0.00% | -100.0% |
Earnings & filings
MSFT earnings calls, releases, and filing evidence
Earnings calls
No authorized call transcript summary is available yet for this ticker.
Filings & announcements
Q3 FY2026 · Earnings Release Summary
Revenue: $82.9B; EPS: $4.27 diluted EPS
Source: Microsoft FY2026 Q3 results · 2026-04-29Earnings history
| Date | Period | Status | Revenue | EPS | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-29 | Q3 FY2026 | Reported | $82.9B | $4.27 | Microsoft FY2026 Q3 results |
Capital and holders
Ownership structure
- Tracked 13F value: $4.05B
- Tracked active holders: 6
- Top-five concentration: 99.9%
- Shares outstanding: 7,428,434,704
Tracked 13F value is not the same as institutional ownership of float because the manager universe is intentionally limited. Insider ownership also requires the latest proxy statement and is not inferred from short Form 4 windows. This section therefore separates observed data from estimates instead of presenting false precision.
CY2026Q1
Earnings analysis
| Period | Revenue | Net income | EPS | Operating margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CY2026Q1 | $82.89B | $31.78B | 4.27 | 46.3% |
| TTM | $311.9B | $123.81B | 16.61 | 47% |
| CY2025 | $281.72B | $101.83B | See filing | 45.6% |
Microsoft's fiscal Q3 2026 report was a MSFT-specific repricing event because revenue reached $82.9B (+18% YoY), earnings came in at $4.27 diluted EPS, and the real debate moved to business quality: Is Microsoft still the cleanest enterprise AI compounder, or is the stock beginning to price in too much cloud perfection? The clean read is not simply beat or miss. Investors should separate the reported numbers, the segment engine, the AI/capex burden, margin durability, and what the stock had already priced in before the release.
Read detailed earnings analysisScenario analysis
Forecast range
2026 forecast range: $360-410 bear case, $500-575 base case, and $620-680 bull case. At about $405.21, Microsoft trades near $3.02T, with a trailing P/E around 24.1x and EPS around $16.80. The analyst snapshot is Strong Buy: 37 analysts; average target $569.46; median $575; low $415; high $680.
Forecast assumptions
- Revenue growth must be checked against the latest filing and management guidance.
- Current reported operating margin is 47%.
- TTM free-cash-flow margin is 21.7%.
- Discount rates and valuation multiples should move when risk-free rates, business risk, or estimate confidence changes.
This is not a buy or sell recommendation. Forecasts are conditional ranges whose assumptions can fail.
Open forecast methodology and scenariosTechnology
Peer comparison
| Company | TTM revenue | Revenue growth | Operating margin | Tracked holders |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSFTMicrosoft | $311.9B | 18.3% | 47% | 7 |
| AAPLApple Inc. | $444.34B | 16.6% | 32.5% | 2 |
| AVGOBroadcom | $65.18B | 29.5% | 40.7% | 0 |
| ORCLOracle Corporation | $62.3B | 21.7% | 30.2% | 0 |
| CSCOCisco | $60.22B | 12% | 23.8% | 0 |
| MUMicron Technology | $54.86B | 196.3% | 47.8% | 0 |
| INTCIntel | $52.76B | 7.2% | -11.2% | 0 |
MSFT's 18.3% revenue growth and 47% operating margin should be read against peers using the same reporting definitions. A higher margin may reflect pricing power or business mix, while a lower margin can reflect investment, cyclicality, or weaker economics.
Fund ownership
ETF exposure
MSFT appears among the disclosed top holdings of 10 tracked ETFs shown below. ETF weights change with price movement, rebalancing, creations, redemptions, and issuer methodology.
| ETF | MSFT weight | AUM | Holdings date |
|---|---|---|---|
| VOOVanguard S&P 500 ETF | 4.89% | $960.58B | Apr 30, 2026 |
| IVViShares Core S&P 500 ETF | 4.91% | $823.49B | May 19, 2026 |
| SPYState Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF | 4.95% | $761.47B | May 18, 2026 |
| VTIVanguard Total Stock Market ETF | 4.36% | $640.84B | Apr 30, 2026 |
| QQQInvesco QQQ Trust Series I | 5.20% | $466.45B | May 15, 2026 |
| VUGVanguard Growth ETF | 8.76% | $224.72B | Apr 30, 2026 |
| IWFiShares Russell 1000 Growth ETF | 8.62% | $128.66B | May 19, 2026 |
| VGTVanguard Information Technology ETF | 10.02% | $136.23B | Apr 30, 2026 |
| SPYMState Street SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 ETF | 5.07% | N/A | Apr 15, 2026 |
| VIGVanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF | 3.95% | $106.65B | Apr 30, 2026 |
10-K · 2025-07-30
Key risk factors disclosed in the latest 10-K
The categories below are a deterministic research checklist anchored to Microsoft's industry and latest annual filing. They summarize areas investors should locate in Item 1A; they do not replace the company's exact legal disclosure.
- Demand and product-cycle risk: Software and cloud infrastructure can experience changing customer demand, replacement cycles, and competitive product launches that affect revenue timing.
- Competition and execution: Market share depends on product quality, pricing, distribution, innovation, and management's ability to convert investment into durable customer demand.
- Supply chain and counterparties: Supplier concentration, logistics disruption, component availability, and customer concentration can affect delivery schedules, costs, and working capital.
- Regulation and litigation: Antitrust, privacy, securities, labor, tax, environmental, and industry-specific rules may change costs or restrict products and business practices.
- Financial and market risk: Foreign exchange, interest rates, credit conditions, investment values, and capital-allocation decisions can affect reported earnings and valuation.
Shareholder returns
Dividend and buyback history
Dividend
Microsoft reported $25.86B of dividends paid over the trailing period and $6.76B in the latest standardized quarter. These are company cash outflows, not a per-share forward yield.
Share buybacks
The standardized snapshot does not currently expose a reliable repurchase authorization and share-count bridge for every issuer. Compare diluted shares outstanding across filings and read the capital-return note before concluding that buybacks reduced the share base.
Research workflow
Common research questions about MSFT
Who is the largest tracked institutional holder of MSFT?
Pershing Square is the largest active holder in SnowballHare's current sample, with $2.1B reported. See every named manager on the MSFT ownership page.
What does recent insider activity show for MSFT?
No recent Form 4 transaction appears in the current MSFT window. Check the MSFT Form 4 history for later company-officer or director filings.
What business does Microsoft operate?
Microsoft sells cloud infrastructure, productivity software, Windows, enterprise applications, gaming products, and AI-enabled services through Azure, Microsoft 365, Dynamics, GitHub, and LinkedIn. The MSFT company snapshot connects that business description with reported revenue, profit, and cash flow.
How does MSFT compare with a close operating peer?
MSFT's revenue growth is 18.3% and its operating margin is 47.0%. Compare those figures with AAPL research using the same definitions.
What do the latest financials say about MSFT?
10-Q reports $311.9B of trailing revenue, with revenue growth of 18.3% and an operating margin of 47.0%. The supporting period and source are listed in the MSFT filing section.
How strong is MSFT's cash return profile?
Microsoft reported $25.9B of trailing dividends paid alongside $67.6B of free cash flow. The MSFT capital-return section separates company cash outflows from a forward per-share yield.
Which assumptions matter most for the MSFT outlook?
The MSFT range depends on revenue growth, operating margin, cash conversion, and the risk assumptions in each new filing. Recheck them in the MSFT forecast section.
Primary and reference data
Sources and methodology
- Filings: SEC EDGAR CompanyFacts, 10-K, 10-Q, 8-K, Form 4, 13F-HR.
- Fundamentals: SEC EDGAR CompanyFacts; market references may use yfinance and Finnhub where explicitly available.
- ETF: Issuer disclosures and the locally dated ETF holdings snapshot.
Methodology: How SnowballHare parses and validates data.
Editorial standards: How research is published.
Disclaimer: Informational only; not investment, legal, or tax advice. Cross-check material facts against original filings before acting.
Reference notes
Data notes
Reporting dates
Use filing dates, report periods, and source links together for MSFT. A company filing, a 13F disclosure, a Form 4 transaction, and an earnings release can describe different time windows, so the date beside each row matters before comparing signals.
Ownership context
13F rows are delayed public long-equity snapshots from a selected manager universe. They are useful for seeing which tracked institutions reported exposure, but they do not show every hedge, short position, cash balance, or trade made after the quarter ended.
Insider transactions
Form 4 activity should be read by transaction type, role, value, and remaining ownership. Open-market purchases and sales are different from grants, option exercises, gifts, or tax withholding, and the original SEC filing is still the controlling document.
Earnings and forecasts
Earnings pages and forecast pages are linked when a supported article exists. Treat those pages as context for reported numbers, guidance, margins, and scenario assumptions, then return to the table data when you need the underlying source date or filing trail.